Long-term variations in runoff of the Syr Darya River Basin under climate change and human activities

In this study, we analyzed the hydrological and meteorological data from Syr Darya River Basin during period of 1930–2015 to investigate variations in river runoff impacts climate change human activities on runoff. The River, which is supplied by snow glacier meltwater upstream, an important freshwater source for Central Asia, as nearly half population concentrated area. arid region sensitive activities. Therefore, estimation climatic changes quantification are great concern regional water resources management. long-term trends time series selected 11 stations were examined non-parametric methods, including Pettitt point test Mann-Kendall trend tests. It was found that 8 out showed significant downward Change occurred year around 1960. Moreover, study (1930–2015), annual mean temperature, precipitation, potential evapotranspiration basin increased substantially. We employed sensitivity method evaluate based precipitation evapotranspiration. estimated accounted over 82.6%–98.7% reduction runoff, mainly owing withdrawal irrigation purpose. observed can subsequently lead adverse ecological consequences management perspective.